Portfolio risk and stress across the business cycle

Ratings Migration and the Business Cycle, With Applications to Credit Portfolio Stress Testing

The turmoil in the capital markets in 1997 and 1998 has highlighted the need for systematic stress testing of banks’ portfolios, including both their trading and lending books. We propose that underlying macroeconomic volatility is a key part of a useful conceptual framework for stress testing credit portfolios, and that credit migration matrices provide the specific linkages between underlying...

Ratings Migration and the Business Cycle, With Application to Credit Portfolio Stress Testing

The turmoil in the capital markets in 1997 and 1998 has highlighted the need for systematic stress testing of banks’ portfolios, including both their trading and lending books. We propose that underlying macroeconomic volatility is a key part of a useful conceptual framework for stress testing credit portfolios, and that credit migration matrices provide the specific linkages between underlying...

Credit Portfolio Risk and PD Confidence Sets through the Business Cycle

Transition matrices are an important determinant for risk management and VaR calculations in credit portfolios. It is well known that rating migration behavior is not constant through time. It shows cyclical behavior and significant changes over the years. We investigate the effect of changes in migration matrices on credit portfolio risk in terms of Expected Loss and Value-at-Risk figures for ...

Entrepreneurial Activity, Risk and the Business Cycle∗

This paper analyzes a model in which the risk associated with entrepreneurial activity implies that the amount of such activity is procyclical and results in both amplification and intertemporal propagation of productivity shocks. In the model risk averse agents choose between a riskless project and a risky project with higher expected return (‘the entrepreneurial activity’). Agents who choose ...

Business Cycle Features In The Iranian Economy